šŸ¤‘Crash Course on Crypto, Week 5: From The Business of Blockchains to Global Liquidity

CAN'T BE BOTHERED. TIME TO READ.

Good Afternoon, and welcome back to ToTheUnknown,
The newsletter that guides you thru the jungle of life.

(No, that’s not a gorilla, that’s what we call ā€˜an entrepreneur’).

Today, we’re back with more notes, more insights, and more mildly concerning news about the world.

And if you’ve been living under a rock, don’t stress—I’ve got you covered. Think of today’s news like that "old" uncle who’s still running marathons while your 35-year-old neighbor throws his back out sneezing.

A little seasoned?

Sure.

Still important?

Absolutely.

Heres the menu:

  • āš’ļø What I’ve been up to

  • šŸ¤‘ Crash Course on Crypto: From The Business of Blockchains to Global Liquidity

  • šŸ“° News you need to know

  • 🚨Even crazier and useful news you need to know🚨 

āš’ļø What I’ve been up to

First off, I filmed my video…… sorta, and let’s just say Mother Nature had other plans.

My hands were literally freezing, I joked my words more than a nervous best man at a wedding.

I swear, every time I step outside to film, the universe hits me with, ā€œOh, you wanted good conditions? Nah.ā€

It took me a ton of tries to even get some small clips (these aare to show my down moments, and that everything is not as easy as it seems).

So, I’ve officially learned my lesson: no more 5am filming sessions in the freezing cold.

Instead, I’ll be filming at home where I don’t have to worry about frostbite or looking like a shadowy figure from a crime documentary.

The video is coming next week—……hopefully, without me looking like I was trapped in an ice cube.

On top of that, my mindset has taken a HUGE shift.

So, here’s the plan:

āœ… Film in a warm, well-lit place like a normal person
āœ… Keep pushing my limits but also accept that done is better than perfect
āœ… Stop overcomplicating things and just take action

This week has been a lesson in patience, persistence, and not letting the cold ruin my grind.

Can’t wait to share more next week—hopefully with a video that doesn’t look like it was filmed in a haunted forest.

Stay tuned!

How am I feeling?

Here’s this weeks’s vibe:

ā¤ļøā¤ļøā¤ļøā¤ļøā¤ļø / ā¤ļøā¤ļøā¤ļøā¤ļø

😠 

Now the week’s reflection

Monday

That day was like it was, not very good. Gym was amazing, school went by very fast, and nothing really happened other that I a tummy ache. It felt like I was about to sh*t my pants ight in the middle of English class. Asked my teacher if I could go to the toilet. She said, "In a minute, let me tell you about the history of the WC first."…… Ma’am. This is not the time for a TED Talk. šŸ’€ Didn’t get much done in school. Again, most of the time at home was spent writing the last post (witch again, I missed the mark on). Didn’t have much time to read ā€œSkin In The Gameā€. Read some emails, meditated. Didn’t do any homework, Who needs them, right? But I did end up making them in school.

What was the best part about that day?

Probably gym, and the cold shower.

What made you feel awful that day?

My tummy ache, and teacher not letting me go to the toilet. And didn’t have much time to read.

Tuesday

Normal day (this means not very good in my books, didn’t get much done). When I woke up, did some studying. Did some homework in the free time, read some emails and read about the social media game. At home I bought another book called ā€œSell Like Crazyā€ by Sabri Suby. I mean, HOLY FU*K HOW GOOD THE SALES FUNNEL WAS BY HIM. Okei, it was a bit too much, trying to make up for the free book, trying to sell everything to me (the sales funnel was like never ending, and I couldn’t see the light at the end of the tunnel. "But wait! Do you want the upgraded version?"; "How about a 1-on-1 coaching call?"; or "For just $997, you can—"). The sale Funnel TOOK Ca. 1H AND A HALF OF MY TIME AWAY, CRAZY. Read more about the media and some emails.

What was the best part about that day?

Saved a ton of time over the week, by doing homework up front. Bought Sabri Suby’s book.

What made you feel awful that day?

Had to do the homework.

Wednesday

Successful day. The day I forgot it was wednesday, so that’s why I didn’t write storytelling wednesday on time. Didn’t get much done in school. Put PGA call in place. Meditated and read for quite a while.

What was the best part about that day?

Read so much before sleep.

What made you feel awful that day?

Didn’t write the post. šŸ˜… 

Thursday

Amazing day. Got a ton done in school. For some reason the PGA call was cancelled, but it is what it is. Completely changed my mentality (once again, but you need to do it to achieve somethind). Had a quick talk with myself before bed. Realized I care way too much about what people think (have come to this thought many times). Life is a simulation, it’s a game, everybody is here just like NPC in video games. So I made a decision: I’m done caring. If I look stupid? Who cares. If I fail? Who cares. If someone laughs? Good—at least I made their day. And honestly? Best decision ever. Just DON’T GIVE A FUUU*K.

What was the best part about that day?

Change in mentality.

What made you feel awful that day?

PGA was cancelled.

Friday

Great day. That day was like a +off day. It felt very free, because, even though I went to school the two last lessons didn’t happen, and the first lessons went by super fast. Wrote a rough script for my YT video (basically lined out the things I want to mention, and talk about), because I learnt from earlier, that I couldn’t speak a word infront of the camera. As my mother was not feeling so great, and also had a tummy ache that day, I went to the grocery store and bought some food. Also quickly mixed something good to eat (the mangos that I bought, even though they were not ready yet, were amazing). Read emails, and wrote this post. I’m just thinking, I should cut reading newsletters (not completely), because they take too much valuable time. I could be doing something more valuable with the same time (please though, this newsletter is still very useful, because it’s basically many newsletters in ONE). Finished my scrip, because even though it was not quite finished yet (I thought for a second that I’ll do it the next day), I finished it, because I was in the flow, and everybody should know that when you’re in the flow you don’t stop.

What was the best part about that day?

Finished my script.

What made you feel awful that day?

Not much, could’ve been more productive.

Saturday

Went training, and it was immaculate . Also just bought another year pass. Honestly, if you can’t do a L sit, you’re unhealthy (and these are not only my words, Chris Heria says it as well). Went to my dads place. Her wife made some curd pizza. Yes, you read that right. Curd pizza. Might sound nasty to you, and might make you question, why I’m eating this, this doesn’t align with my eating habits. But heres the thing: No flour. Minimal cheese. Basically pure protein. I had a curd pizza with tuna, -basically pure protein, and taseted amazing. After that went to a Tourism Fair, and it was not as great of an experience as last year, when I went there with my grandmother. After that went to a shopping centre, went home, ate, and went to sleep.

What was the best part about that day?

The morning part, training and the pizza. Also the fair was nice.

What made you feel awful that day?

The ammount of time wasted, and didn’t see as much on the fair.

Sunday

Today was an okei day. Woke up, put my training clothes on, went running, and filmed/recorded my YT video/voice memo. It was super cold. Didn’t run as much today, as it was cold. After that went home and continued writing this post. By noon, I was out on a hill with my sister, watching her slide down on a snow tube while I questioned my life choices. Afternoon, went back home, read some emails, and wrote. Nothing really that astonishing happened, but still a okei day.

What was the best part about that day?

Went out, tried to film, got the voice memo (which I could have done a long time ago and at home, but we learn right 😄)

What made you feel awful that day?

Still no full video.

Nows the time for some notes.

šŸ¤‘ Crash Course on Crypto: From The Business of Blockchains to Global Liquidity

šŸ’± The Business of Blockchains

Apple sells iPhones.

Starbucks sells coffee.

and blockchains?

They sell blockspace.

Yep, blockchains are businesses too—they offer a product (blockspace) that people pay to use, and just like any business, some are more valuable than others.

For instance, Bitcoin ($BTC) blockspace is pretty basic—it's mostly used for simple transactions or static NFTs with no extra bells and whistles.

On the other hand, blockchains like Ethereum ($ETH) and other Layer 1s?

They pack a punch with smart contracts, opening the door to decentralized apps, DeFi, and much more.

Think of it like this: Bitcoin is a basic sedan, while Ethereum is a fully loaded sports car.

Some blockspace occurs on more secure real estate than others.

Some blockspace are faster than others, and some cost more than others.

Blockchains don’t have employees, however they have revenues and expenses.

So, how do blockchains make money?

Two main ways: gas fees and issuance.

  • Gas Fees:
    Every time someone uses a blockchain (like buying a digital collectible– NFT), they pay a fee in the blockchain’s native token—this is called gas. All these fees go to the miners or validators who keep the network running and secure. Plus, some blockchains, like Ethereum, use a ā€œburnā€ mechanism. This means they destroy a part of the fees received—kind of like a share buyback in TradFi—reducing the overall supply and potentially increasing the token’s value.

  • Issuance:
    Blockchains also mint new tokens to reward miners or validators. For proof-of-work blockchains must pay those who secure their network (miners) much more than those who secure a proof-of stake blockchain (validators). The goal is to eventually become self-sustaining, where the fees cover all expenses.

Now, let’s talk about Layer 2 (L2) solutions. These are like the budget-friendly versions of blockchains.

They still charge fees (just like Layer 1s) but operate without miners or validators, which makes transactions much cheaper.

Some of the most advanced L2s out there include Arbitrum, Optimism, Polygon, and Starkness (there are many more). 

They cut a fee from every transaction and pass the rest back to their parent blockchain (often $ETH) to secure the network.

This sustainable model allows them to reinvest in technology or even share revenue with token holders.

Global Liquidity is Dropping, It’s All About Demographics…

Let’s switch from crypot, to Global Liquidity (spoiler: in short, its a market go up or down indicator for Bitcoin)

This is all about the money floating around in the world’s economy.

And guess what?

It’s all about demographics…

It’s dropping šŸ‘‡ļø 

It’s all about demographics…

The population growth and fertility rate has been droping massively since the boom in 1980’s. Almost 20% oof the population is elderly +65 years.

A big part of this has to do with a decline in fertility rates in women globally, mainly due to a significant change in the average humans health over the last 40 years (consuming fake foods, living sedentary lifestyles, microplastics and hormone disrupters in our food and environment, stressful lifestyles and more).

Heres the TL;DR for you lazy bastards out there:

  • When you’re young, you work, earn, and spend money. But nowadays, almost 20% of the world’s population is over 65, and with declining fertility rates, there are fewer young people.

  • Fewer people working means less money being generated (that’s productivity), and when economies can’t grow because there are fewer consumers and producers, global liquidity takes a hit.

Here's the simple formula for GDP growth:
GDP Growth = Population Growth + Productivity Growth + Debt Growth

Simply put, for the economy to grow (GDP growth) you must have humans consuming/producing more in an economy (population growth) and/or more consumption/production per human in an economy (productivity growth) and/or more money created to consume or produce things in an econoomy (debt growth)

  • Population Growth: More people mean more potential for economic activity.

  • Productivity Growth: Each person produces more.

  • Debt Growth: Sometimes, governments print more money (take on more debt) to keep the economy running.

As the largest economies in the world have declining population growth (the only way to grow GDP), the only way to remain on top is either become more productive or create (print) more money (theres no other way).

As governments print more money to cover growing debt, their currencies get debased—meaning the money you hold loses value.

That’s why scarce assets like gold, real estate, crypto, and tech stocks become super attractive.

Tech is improving productivity, but it’s not enough.

You can see this dynamic clearly with the chart below comparing the US labor force participation rate (the amount of people in the US working and being productive citizens) vs. the US government debt as a % of GDP (the amount of debt that makes up the economy’s GDP).

Global Macro Investor

This chart is one of the most important charts in macro and there are 2 key takeaways from this:

1/ Non-productive humans (like retirees) create a ā€œdragā€ on an economy, making it harder and harder for an economy to grow and remain solvent. Retired and non-working humans create little economic value, yet come with significant costs in terms of social security, healthcare, etc

As you can see above, the % of non-productive humans in the US economy is only growing.

2/ Declining fertility rates mean fewer workers in the future, forcing governments to print more money (and rack up debt) to sustain the economy. This creates what’s known as a global debt spiral, where interest payments compound over time, further devaluing the currency.

This is the root cause of the entire thing.

It’s all about demographics…

You can see this dynamic clearly in the chart below, comparing Fed Net liquidity and US Government debt as a % of GDP.

Global Macro Investor

As governments grow their debt, they debase their currency by printing more of it. As a result, the value of these currencies goes down versus scarce assets like Gold, Real Estate, Crypto and Tech Stocks

A key point to remember about government debt is that governments need to pay interest on it, the same as we pay interest on unpaid credit card debt or mortgages.

This is where the ā€œdebt spiralā€ mentioned above comes in…

Not only are government debts getting bigger and bigger because we have less productive humans overtime, but the interest payments on this unpaid debt is compounding year over year.

On a side note, this also explains why interest rates have trended lower over time since the 1980s. The government simply can’t handle sustained high interest rates, it MUST go lower or the debt spiral will accelerate and the system will collapse.

TL;DR:

Imagine a balloon that you keep pumping air into—the more you pump, the more it stretches until it can’t hold any more, and then… POP!

In the economy, as more money is printed, the value of the currency drops, which is why we see shifts in asset prices during these cycles.

What This Info Means For YOU

Understanding these concepts isn’t just academic—it’s like having secret instructions for a video game.

Here’s how you can use it:

  • Price Volatility:
    Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, are highly sensitive to changes in global liquidity. When liquidity decreases, it often leads to increased price volatility. Investors may panic and sell off their holdings, causing significant price drops. For instance, Bitcoin has shown a strong correlation with global liquidity, moving in the same direction approximately 83% of the time. This means that when liquidity tightens, Bitcoin's price typically declines.

  • Speculative Nature:
    The speculative nature of cryptocurrencies makes them particularly vulnerable during periods of reduced liquidity. Investors may become more risk-averse and pull back from speculative investments, leading to sharp corrections in prices.

  • Safe-Haven Assets:
    In times of decreasing liquidity, investors often seek safe-haven assets. While traditional assets like gold may benefit from this trend, cryptocurrencies can also attract attention as alternative investments. However, their effectiveness as a safe haven can be inconsistent due to their inherent volatility

Ok, that’s all for this crypto crash course. I’ll drop some last notes I have in my notebook soon. Maybe I’ll alsoo start taking notes on my computer, but honestly, I still rather write my notes into a notebook, because you actually learn by dooing it (at least you’d learn a lot more than tiping it on a computer)

šŸ“° News you need to know

It appears crypto AI agents now have some solid competition!

OpenAI’s ā€˜Operator’ agent can book tables for you using OpenTable, order groceries for you via Instacart, book tickets for you on Stubhub, and a whole lot more!

The kicker? It’s live today for ChatGPT Pro users, in the US!

🚨 Even crazier and useful news you need to know 🚨 

WHAT THE HELL IS DEEPSEEK-R1?

If you haven’t heard about it yet, it’s about time.

Get this: a small team of Chinese developers recently created an AI model called DeepSeek-R1, as a fun little side project…

And over the weekend, that ā€˜side project’ has been widely credited with:

1/ Wiping hundreds of billions of dollars from the US stock market!

(I wrote this a while back, so these are a bit old)

2/ Taking the crypto market along with it…

3/ And fly kicking ChatGPT from the #1 spot on the App Store.

So, what the hell is so good about DeepSeek-R1?? 

A whooole bunch of stuff, apparently – here’s everything you need to know…

First off – DeepSeek the AI platform has been around since November 2023, but DeepSeek-R1 (the company’s flashy new model that’s got everyone spooked) launched on January 20.

DeepSeek-R1 is a free-to-use ā€˜reasoning’ AI model (as opposed to the common ā€˜responsive’ models), which competes with OpenAI’s $200/month ChatGPT o-1 reasoning model.

Responsive models essentially find answers to problems using a cheat sheet (aka: all of the data it has scraped from the internet), whereas reasoning models work out each answer on their own, using step-by-step logic and (you guessed it) reason – much like a human.

A big part of why everyone is freaking out over DeepSeek-R1 is that it’s more efficient, just as performant as the major US-based reasoning models, and damn-near free to use!

Here’re the finer details on all of that:

1/ Cost Efficiency

DeepSeek-R1 is free to use for up to 50 messages per day – and if you want to go over that limit (say, with a bunch of automated API requests) DeepSeek-R1 is still ridiculously cheap.

Here’s the A/B comparison between ChatGPT o1 and DeepSeek-R1’s API costs:

2/ Compute Efficiency

In September of 2022, the US banned the export of advanced Nvidia AI chips (like the A100 and H100 models) to China.

So when the DeepSeek-R1 team started building the model, they had to make sure it was efficient enough to run on the less powerful hardware available to them.

And they ended up making it so damn efficient that people have been able to run smaller versions of the model locally (aka: on-device, without internet) using an iPhone!

3/ Performance

DeepSeek-R1 – which is rumored to have taken two months and less than $10M in total to develop – pretty much matches (and in some cases outperforms) all of the major US-based AI models.

High quality

low cost.

PLUS: On top of all of that – DeepSeek-R1 is open source! Meaning anyone can run it, wherever/whenever they want.

ā€œOk, that’s nice n’ all – but how did one Large Language Model wipe billions of dollars from capital markets??ā€

– you likely

From a certain angle, DeepSeek-R1 could be seen as an ā€˜ecosystem breaker.’

Think of it like this:

Previously, you bought the most capable NVIDIA AI Chips because that’s what you needed to run powerful AI models.

You subscribed to OpenAI Pro because that was the only way you get access to the most performant reasoning models in the world.

You bought the new iPhone 16 Pro because it had Apple Intelligence – an AI model that runs locally on your iPhone.

These kinds of features/solutions help to keep users within each company’s respective ecosystem, and buying their top-tier products…

But DeepSeek-R1 is a free equivalent to OpenAI’s o1 model, is said not to require NVIDIA’s top of the line AI chips, and can even run on mobile devices!

That threat likely plays a part in why tech stocks are a little skittish right now. 

…but is that enough to do this much damage on its own?

Probably not.

The takeaways: Crypto will weather this storm, and more competition in the AI space is a good thing.

Hell – we just got one step closer to having a super intelligence that lives locally on our devices, and runs for next to nothing

(If you're going to worry – worry about the fact that SkyNet is now closer to reality than it has ever been).

That’s a wrap, folks.

If today’s post didn’t quite hit the mark… my bad.

I’m running on low battery,

mr bean dreaming GIF

and my book is calling my name louder than my teacher when I get a math problem wrong (it happens even to the best of us. It was probably that - again).

At least I got this out on time—small wins, right?

See ya Wednesday… if I remember. 

*Shouting loudly: ā€œSiri, set an alarm,… and a reminder for Wednesday, to remind me to write Storytelling Wednesdayā€*

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